10 Powerful 2024 Publishing Predictions and Trends You Need to Know

January 8, 2024

2024 Publishing Predictions

Book publishing is an ever-changing and dynamic industry. While it is impossible to fully predict what will happen in 2024 for books and authors (but wouldn’t it be nice if we could??), I do have a few educated guesses about where the publishing industry is headed.

I’m Kaitlin, a fiction editor for indie authors, and I hope my 2024 publishing predictions help you get a sense of trends on the horizon.

Keep reading for my 10 predictions, as well as some thoughts from other knowledgeable freelance editors.

1. More Sports, Less Hockey

Sports romance has always been a popular subgenre of romance, but 2023 saw a huge influx of hockey books, both by traditional and self-published authors. I tried finding exact statistics on just how many hockey books were published last year, but could only find a list created on Goodreads. There are 267 hockey romances (all published last year) on that list! Another Goodreads list with 80 books focuses on “Gay Male Hockey Romances in 2023.”

Curious about why hockey romance is so popular? Check out this explainer from The Romance Studio or this article from The Boston Globe.

Hockey was definitely having a moment last year. However, I think the popularity of hockey romance will wane in 2024. This is partly due to an oversaturated market, but also because of the backlash from real players who were concerned about the attention from overzealous BookTok (book influencers on TikTok) fans. (Not sure what I’m talking about? The New York Times and Washington Post can fill you in.)

I predict we will still see a lot of sports romance, but authors will look to other sports in order to create something fresh and exciting for their readers. Take Liz Tomforde: She has a wildly popular sports romance series, but only the first book is focused on hockey.

Expect to see a rise in less conventional sports, like F1, fencing, golf (Tessa Bailey is set to publish her golf novel Fangirl Down in February 2024), or swimming. I do think audiences are clamoring for more LGBTQ+ content in sports romance (as evidenced by the many hockey books we saw last year!), so I am hopeful we will see more books featuring those relationships.

2. Romantasy is Here to Stay

Look, I’m not mad about it!

Romantasy is a big buzzword in the publishing industry that refers to fantasy romance novels.

Tara Whitaker, editor and freelance editing coach, says, “I think we’re going to see even more romantasy in 2024 on the heels of Fourth Wing, Iron Flame, and similar novels.”

I think Whitaker is 100% correct! Publishers and indie authors are paying attention to what people like, and many are trying to capitalize on this trend while it’s still hot and exciting.

With the renewed interest in A Court of Thorns and Roses (often referred to as ACOTAR) due to TikTok, romantasy as a subgenre has rapidly increased in popularity. In fact, the romantasy hashtag on TikTok reportedly has over 475 million views.

Rebecca Yarros, author, caused a frenzy with book influencers when she released Fourth Wing in May and Iron Flame a few months later in November. Fourth Wing alone has already sold more than 2 million copies.

Romantasy isn’t going anywhere anytime soon!

3. More Diversity ... in Every Way!

Freelance editor and owner of Scrollwork Edits, Rebecca Scharpf predicts we will see more diversity in stories and authors in 2024.

Scharpf says, “Indie spaces have been pushing for more fat main characters in response to the still-prevalent stigma around characters based on their weight, and I think we’re going to see more diversity with body types, which is super exciting! I also think we’ll continue to see more books by neurodivergent authors, featuring characters with ADHD, autism, and other neurodivergencies! I feel like there’s been a lot of growth in this area over the past year, and readers are only wanting more!”

The beauty of indie and self-publishing is that authors are free to tell the stories they want to tell, without worrying if a traditional publisher will want to champion their book. This freedom has allowed authors to create a more diverse landscape with their stories, characters, and voices.

Scharpf is absolutely correct in thinking that neurodivergent authors and stories are growing in popularity. Just Geeking By has a “2023 Disabled and Neurodivergent Books and Comics Release List” that “includes books and comics that are being published in 2023 that are written by disabled and/or neurodivergent authors, or include disabled and/or neurodivergent characters.” Readers like these stories, and traditional media is taking note, with The Guardian reporting that children’s books featuring a neurodivergent main character are being snatched up by publishers, and PBS Kids gearing up to create a new show about characters with autism.

And, while I couldn’t find a definitive list of all books published in 2023 featuring fat leads or body diversity, I was able to very quickly find many lists featuring books published in the last few years. Try this one from TBR or this one from Laura Thomas (focused on children’s media).

4. AI Isn't Taking Over

Is this wishful thinking? Geez, I hope not. I think in 2023 we all saw the massive capabilities (and massive flaws) of AI, especially in the editing and writing world. I don’t think AI will disappear, but I do think books written entirely by AI will go stop being so prevalent.

People will see that their audience craves real stories by real humans, and will stop self-publishing AI drivel. (Have you ever read an AI story? Painful!) Here’s some more info about why AI stories are so awful.

In terms of editing, there are many assistive technologies many editors and authors utilize, like Grammarly or PerfectIt. While they are not technically considered AI, I think many budget-conscious indie authors think they can do the same job as a human editor. (Spoiler alert: They can’t!)

I do think indie authors will realize this year that having all editing completed by an AI tool will only spell disaster for their book, their voice, and their book sales.

A real-life example: An author in a Facebook group I’m in hired an editor (for a very low price) and was shocked to find that the editor had run her writing through an AI tool. The AI tool changed her entire story. She was so upset, especially once she realized that now her writing was likely being used as “training” for the software. This is something I saw, but cannot verify, so take it with a grain of salt. I do think it is worth mentioning because many authors don’t realize that hiring editors who charge very low fees are often using this type of technology.

I think authors are going to be more discerning about working with editors who use AI as they edit.

5. Audiobooks are the Next Big Thing for Indie Authors

More indie authors are financing audiobooks for their readers. While producing and paying for audiobooks can be expensive, having audiobooks improves accessibility for readers. More readers are excited about listening to their favorite authors than ever before.

This 2022 article from Writers Digest talks about the rise of audiobooks since 2019, and that it is expected to become a $19 billion industry by 2027.

If your Amazon KDP or ebook sales need a boost, audiobooks can help you reach a different group of readers.

Curious about how to self-produce an audio book? Here’s a quick guide on getting started.

I think many people believe that audiobooks are for authors at a big publishing house, like Penguin, but that’s not the case anymore. Book Boss Academy goes into detail in this article about all the benefits of audiobooks for indie authors.

6. A Rise in Political Books

2024 is an election year and I think it’s only natural to expect a rise in political books, both fiction and non-fiction. I think many indie authors will take advantage of the news cycle and write stories inspired by the upcoming election.

Jasmine Guillory wrote a delightful romance called Party of Two that focused on politics, without focusing on any current or real candidates. Because so many indie authors write quickly and for the current market, I expect we will see more of these pop up.

LibLime discusses how election years impact reading in this article. And, while not exactly current, this 2020 article from the LA Times talks about how the election shaped publishing.

Want a list of political romance books? This list from Goodreads looks pretty comprehensive, and this list (from 2020) posted on BookBub has some interesting titles.

7. Genre Word Counts Will Be More Important Than Ever

Out of all my 2024 publishing predictions, this one is mostly for querying authors.

The price of paper has been rising steadily for the last few years. It looks like the price is only going up.

Why does this matter for querying authors?

Well, to put it bluntly, agents are less likely to champion a book they know will cost a lot to produce.

If an author’s first book is vastly outside the typical word count for their genre, the agent or publisher is going to be wary of signing with them. They are more likely to take a gamble on a new author if they know the print books are going to cost around the same amount to produce as all the other books they are currently publishing.

Not all authors query—many are happy to self-publish instead of going the traditional publishing route. For self-publishing or indie authors, genre word counts are less important, unless they are concerned about keeping the physical copies of their books affordable for their audience.

8. Authors Are Taking Control

Authors make their own luck. One of my 2024 publishing predictions is that we are going to see authors figuring out how to make the most money by doing things themselves. They’ll be able to offer their readers more while also making a larger income.

Want to offer signed copies of books? Sell them from your website!

What to commission character art and sell it to your readers? Sell it on your website!

Tired of querying, and just want your story out there? Amazon KDP may be the best place for you!

Want to fund a story you’re writing? Check out these Kickstarters by Brandon Sanderson and Katee Robert. Read this article about starting your own author Kickstarter from Scribe Media.

9. Search for Community

Tara Whitaker, freelance editor and founder of the Freelance Editors Club, says, “I think we’re going to see more curated communities. After Twitter’s demise, people are looking for a sense of belonging elsewhere, and while some are moving to other bigger platforms like Threads and BlueSky, I think others are looking for smaller, more intimate, and specialized groups.”

Discord has seen a rise in smaller communities, and Threads is certainly giving BlueSky a run for its money. If you’re curious about all the different major platforms out there, Kathleen Schmidt breaks them all down in this substack post.

There are all sorts of new conferences for indie publishers and authors to help people make connections in their local communities. Book Brush has a list here, but pay attention to local writing groups for smaller ones in your area that may not have as much publicity.

Wherever we all decide to go, community in this industry is essential!

10. Marketing as Connection

Marketing and promotion seems to be the bane of every author’s existence. I see it all the time: How do I market authentically? How do I market without being salesy? What is the best way to market my book?

One of my 2024 publishing predictions is that this is the year where marketing = connection.

People can see right through an inauthentic piece of marketing. They want to connect to books, to characters, and to authors. If you are an author and want to market your book or ebook this year, focus on building connections.

I think we will see an uptick in virtual author events, podcasts, and direct marketing with book influencers. The pandemic helped establish virtual events, and I think we will continue to see authors utilize these as a way to connect with readers all over the world for free (many authors will even virtually come to a book club meeting if asked, which is a great way to make lifelong fans and connect with readers!). Virtual events don’t need to be especially formal either. Live streaming via a social media app with another author or book influencer is an easy way to generate interest and build relationships. I love the idea of these virtual events because it creates events with greater accessibility for readers AND doesn’t require the author to spend any money.

We have seen a shift towards podcasts in the last few years, and the market is booming. Podcast content helps with visibility and authenticity. In 2024 authors should try and guest on a few podcasts that serve their audience. Not sure where to start? Here’s an article about how to start your own podcast and here’s one listing some of the best podcasts for indie authors in 2023.

Book boxes have become a huge marketing tool for authors and their self-published books. They offer something new and different to readers, while helping authors promote their ebooks to a new audience. Here’s an article about why book boxes are so great for indie authors and here’s one about how to get your book into a book box.

And, I couldn’t mention marketing and promotion without talking about the importance of email marketing. Read my blog 5 Secrets to Growing Your Author and Newsletter List.

Friendly reminder to authors: Just because you have a rabid fanbase on social media and send out a newsletter does NOT mean you don’t need a website. If you have been putting off creating or updating your website, 2024 is the year to change that. Read my blog Do I Need an Author Website? for more info!

What do you think of these 2024 publishing predictions?

If I’m wrong about any of these, feel free to rub it in my face. 🙂 I hope these publishing trend predictions for 2024 have helped you visualize where the print and digital publishing world is headed.

I would love to talk with you about your next project. Please contact me about your 2024 editing needs—I’m in your corner, and I would love to partner with you!